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How to build a company when you're not an optimist | Jay Kreps (Co-founder and CEO, Confluent)

Confluent's CEO explains how distinguishing between what a company "can do" versus "must do" drove their bet-everything pivot to cloud—and why tenacity beats optimism in company building.

· startups business
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My Notes (7)

Starred note

Decentralization only works with accountability attached

  • The goal is giving people a unit they own, with real flexibility to pursue goals and real goals to hit.
  • This gets underthought as companies grow.
  • At 100 people it's a non-issue. The only place you need it is the management team.
  • At a few thousand you need units that move quickly, make their own decisions and hold real autonomy. It's very natural to lose this as you grow.
  • In a small company, people with decision-making freedom sit close enough to everything that they just do the thing that makes sense. That's what you lose at scale.
  • It took Confluent a few years to go from fully centralized to product areas that act like 45% of a company.
  • G&A is handled for them. They carry a revenue target, dedicated marketing, dedicated sales support, a plan for success and a plan for growth.
  • The message becomes real: you own this, figure it out, don't wait for someone to come to you.
  • The failure mode it kills is narrow ownership. I wrote the specs, engineering shipped it, design did their part, hopefully it works.
  • Owners think end to end about what's working, why customers use it or don't, and what's holding back growth.
Starred note

Diagnosing what's broken is the hardest work in a company

  • You get a top-level result you don't want. Figuring out what caused it is shockingly difficult.
  • A disproportionate share of the time it's people. It's also product philosophy, timing, and being a year early. It's genuinely all of those.
  • Sometimes a team gets trapped in a failing mindset or methodology. Changing the person is really about opening the aperture on what that part of the org is willing to try.
  • The default diagnosis is always sales. Sales are down, so the sales lead is bad.
  • That's often right and commonly true. It could also be anything else in the chain of value leading up to the sale. That's the maddening part.

Nobody inside a function can diagnose a cross-functional problem

  • Anything not working at a high level is inherently cross-functional.

  • People in each function usually lack the global context to diagnose it, and personality decides how they get it wrong.

  • Someone on the product team assumes the answer is more product features. Maybe. It could also be that nobody knows how to sell the thing, and they're not thinking about that at all.

  • Other people go the other way and blame a different part of the org out of defensiveness.

  • The CEO has to think flexibly about changes across every part of the org, which is exactly what diagnosis requires.

  • The method is simple. Go ask everybody why this is happening, collect all the answers, work out which makes the most sense, and ask what you'd do if that were the cause.

  • You're not doing it in isolation. You're aggregating views that are each too narrow on their own.

  • You're doing all this inside a fog of partial understanding. Past a certain size it's impossible to know everything about everything.

  • Aim to be roughly directionally right. Know a lot about the most important things and enough about the rest.

  • Jay's target is knowing about 80% of what each executive knows about their function. Not enough to do the job, enough to know what good looks like and whether it's going well.

For engineering decisions, they're mostly knowable and there's mostly kind of right and wrong answers. But usually, especially the early phase of the company, you're making a lot of very big critical decisions with a lot of unknowable aspects. It will certainly impact how the company turns out and you know that, but you don't know what the right answer is and you won't find out until later. The CEO job generally, you operate much more in a kind of fog of partial understanding. I don't know that everybody understands that, but very quickly as the organization gets bigger, it's impossible to know everything about everything. And so you have to kind of be roughly directionally right.

in practice you can't understand everything about everything. You have to understand a lot about the most important things and enough about some of the other things, and try and make that judgment.

There's always two lenses in a company. One is what can we do? And then the other is what do we have to do? And so, what can we do? That's an opinion from the team. What do we have to do is kind of imposed by the world, the market.

Teams, because they spend all their time thinking about how to do something, they become very fixated on what can be done. And it's actually very important to step back and be like, hey, to be successful in this product area, what do we have to do? And then, it's weird. Once you know you have to do it, then you find a way to do it.

Tenaciousness, pain tolerance, I think that's actually probably the most important ingredient for the willingness to go after the things that you have to do.

And then I'm also just tenacious. I'm not necessarily an optimist. It helps if you're an optimist. Some of the best founders are just these inherently optimistic people. It gets you there if you're just determined. Where you're like, well, okay, then the probability is only 20%, but we're not going to give up until we've lost all hope, right? Just willingness to keep working on things well past the point where it's a bit painful is important.

Just being curious and wanting to learn about all the parts of the business and how it worked, our customers, how they work...

Summary used for search

• A single 25-page blog post did more for Kafka adoption than years of engineering—the product marketing pyramid matters as much as the code
• Confluent bet everything on a cloud product when it was "embarrassing" and half the company opposed it, because they knew they "had to" succeed there to survive
• The 80% rule: CEOs need to know 80% of what their executives know about each function—enough to recognize good work, not enough to do it
• "What can we do?" vs. "What must we do?" is the most underrated building lever—once you know something is existential, you find a way
• As companies scale, they naturally become "Chipotle" (systematized mediocrity)—you need autonomous units with accountability to maintain pockets of excellence

Jay Kreps built Confluent from a scrappy group of engineers with zero go-to-market experience into a publicly traded enterprise software company, but not through typical founder optimism. His core insight: the difference between what a company can do and what it must do is one of the most underrated building levers. When Confluent's early cloud product was "embarrassing" and investors and half the company thought it was a terrible idea, Kreps pushed through anyway—because he knew they had to succeed in cloud to survive, even when the on-premise business was printing money at $100M ARR.

The journey started with a product marketing problem. Kafka had massive internal traction at LinkedIn but flopped as open source because no one understood what it was for. Kreps spent months writing a 25-page blog post that finally articulated the value—proving that product marketing requires as much rigor as engineering. That single post did more for adoption than years of development. His framework: build the full pyramid (evidence, use cases, detailed argument) before you can distill the top (the slogan). Most marketing fails because it's either all slogan with no substance, or all substance with no distillation.

On scaling, Kreps offers the 80% rule: CEOs need to know 80% of what their executives know about each function—enough to recognize good work and know if it's going well, but not enough to do the job yourself. You're operating in a "fog of partial understanding" and that's the job. The hardest part is diagnosing what's broken across functions, because everyone naturally blames other parts of the org or defaults to their own discipline's lens.

His most contrarian take: he's not an optimist, he's just tenacious. When you identify something the company must do to succeed, you stop asking "can we?" and start grinding until you find a way. This applies to hiring too—early sales reps need equity-heavy deals and experience at early-stage companies where there's no scaffolding, not Oracle veterans expecting a machine. As companies scale, they naturally become "Chipotle"—systematized and mediocre. The antidote is creating autonomous units with revenue targets and accountability, so they think end-to-end about customer success rather than just executing their narrow function.

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